Assingment for Saturday

1) Read chapter 10 (you can skip chapter 9)

2) Go to this page.

http://abcnews.go.com/

Read the news report about a study of white rice.

Answer these questions;

1) What does the study show?

2) What does the writer (Dr. LAWRENCE BORGES) think about this topic? Does he think white rice is dangerous or not?

3) What is the advice he gives about white rice?

Finding Statistics

Sometimes people use statistics incorrectly.

But sometimes it is hard even to find the statistics!

Do you know Walmart?

Photo by galaygobi



Walmart is a huge multinational company that operates large discount department stores.

Walmart is famous for it`s low prices.

Photo by Walmart Stores


However, many people don`t like Walmart.

They complain that Walmart pays it`s workers too little.

Many people who work at Walmart are still poor!

  Photo by Brave New Films


I want to find out how much Walmart pays a new unskilled worker.

I searched on Yahoo.com



Here are some quotes from many websites.



http://www.buzzle.com/articles/walmart-employee-average-salary.html

"On an hourly basis, the average salary of Walmart employees is around $11.75."

This sounds good but the website sounded biased in favor of Walmart.


http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Employer=Wal-Mart_Stores%2c_Inc/Hourly_Rate

"Cashier: Hourly Rate: $7.32 - $10.20"



http://www.careerleak.com/salaries/walmart/cashier/


This website gets it`s information from anonymous sources.

I can`t be sure if this is true or not.



http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080104140335AAysNZx


"What's the average starting pay for a Walmart employee?
I am just looking for a part time job to earn a little extra money.




Wal-Mart pays an average hourly wage of $8.23 an hour, according to independent expert statistical analysis, which falls below basic living wage standards and even below poverty lines.
Wal-Mart claims an hourly wage of $9.68 an hour is its national average, though that still equals poverty levels for workers. Since “full time” at Wal-Mart is 34 hours a week according to company policy, full-time workers make a mere $17,114.24 a year—below the federal poverty level for a family of four.
The most common Wal-Mart jobs earn less.
A sales associate--the most common job classification--earns on average $8.23 per hour ($13,861 annually)
A cashier—the second most common job—earns about $7.92 per hour ($11,948 annually)
Sales associates and cashiers combined account for more than a third of all Wal-Mart jobs.
Source(s):
http://www.ufcw.org/press_room/fact_sheets_and_backgrounder/walmart/wages.cfm"







This last page looked very good because the person added the source of the information.

However when I clicked on the link I only saw this.

PAGE NOT FOUND!!!!


Finally, I thought, "Why not just go to Walmart`s home page!"

I went to http://walmartstores.com/ 

But I still couldn`t find  how much Walmart pays a new unskilled worker!

I could only find these 2 videos about how wonderful Walmart is!






How much does Walmart pay?

I can`t find out.

Sometimes the most effective way to deceive using statistics is to keep the statistic a secret.

Average is not Normal

This powerpoint file explains the difference between "average" and "normal".

http://www.slideshare.net/

Doctors VS Obamacare

Obamacare is Obama`s plan to change the healthcare industry in America.

There is a lot of debate about this plan.

Many people think it will improve the healthcare industry but many people think it will make things worse.

 Here is an article from the Boston Herald about Obamacare.

boston herald story

"The Supreme Court hasn’t yet rendered its verdict on Obamacare, but the nation’s doctors have. And they think it will wreck America’s health care system.

The latest evidence comes from a new survey of young doctors by the Physicians Foundation. Nearly 60 percent of doctors aged 40 and under are pessimistic about the future of American health care. Just 22 percent are optimistic.

The number-one reason doctors cited for their pessimism? Obamacare, which was singled out by more than a third. Add in related concerns — like distrust of government to do the right thing and the feeling that government intervention hurts patient care — and the docs’ hostility to Obamacare becomes even more intense."

Question


What percentage of American doctors think Obamacare will make the healthcare industry worse?

Research studies

How often do you read a news story about a "Shocking new study!"

Here are some examples of shocking studies! 

1)  "Shock findings in new GMO study: Rats fed lifetime of GM corn grow horrifying tumors, 70% of females die early"



2) NEW STUDY ON HOMOSEXUAL PARENTS TOPS ALL PREVIOUS RESEARCH Children of Homosexuals Fare Worse on Most Outcomes


3) Most Pork is Contaminated, New Study Shows

4) College Education?: Shocking New Research Proves That Our College Students Are Learning Next To Nothing

5) Coke and Pepsi contain alcohol : A shocking study

6) Shocking! Study Finds Gaming Makes You Fat, Nerdy

7) Men with pink shirts earn more than their peers

8) Tree rings prove man made globalnwarming is a fraud. 

Shock findings in new GMO study: Rats fed lifetime of GM corn grow horrifying tumors, 70% of females die early

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/037249_GMO_study_cancer_tumors_organ_damage.html#ixzz2Di5dZydB

Shock findings in new GMO study: Rats fed lifetime of GM corn grow horrifying tumors, 70% of females die early

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/037249_GMO_study_cancer_tumors_organ_damage.html#ixzz2Di5dZydB

How good is the evidence?

Testimonials

A testimonial is a favorable report usually about a product or service.

Look at this testimonial for a car dealer, "Courtesy Chevrolet".

The customers look so happy!

Maybe they are happy because they got a free iPad!

Do you trust this testimonial?





 Fiverr.com


Many people are willing to give any testimonial about anything.

There is a website called Fiverr.com

In this website people offer many things for $5.

Many people will make a video testimonial for you for $5.

Click here to see.



Blurbs

A blurb is another kind of testimonial.

A blurb is a quote, usually from a famous author, saying how good a book is.

You can find many blurbs on the cover of any book.

Here is a book.

Here is the blurb.

 

Do you believe this blurb?

Many people do not believe blurbs.

Authors often blurb each other`s books.

Robert Parker, a famous detective author, said "Never blurb a book you`ve read, and never read a book you`ve blurbed."



Company testimonials

Companies love to show testimonials from their clients!

http://www.quickcert.com/client_testimonials.cfm



EBay testimonials

How can you know if a person on EBay is a good seller or not?

Read the testimonials!

http://feedback.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewFeedback2&userid=mitchellkormos&ftab=AllFeedback&myworld=true

Assignment for next week

1) Read chapter 8

You can omit pages 110-113.

These pages go into too much detail.

2) Appeals to authority.

Choose a person you consider to be an authority about an important topic.

Should you really think of this person as an impartial expert?

Research about this person.

You can use Wikipedia, Yahoo and Youtube to find out more about this person.

Then fill in the following form about the person.


        Appeals to Authority


Name________________________________________


Job__________________________________________


Education/ Training_____________________________


Experience_____________________________________


Special position_________________________________


Bias__________________________________________


Good Reputation________________________________


Considering all of this information, has your opinion of this person changed?



Here is an example about Duncan Hawthorne


Appeals to authority

I filled out the form about him.
     

  Appeals to Authority


Name_____Duncan Hawthorne____________________


Job______CEO of Bruce Power____________________


Education/ Training______MBA____________________


Experience_Engineering and Management in power generation

companies_


Special position__Canada Nuclear Association__Energy Council of Canada____World Association of Nuclear Operators________________________


Bias______"Nuclear Power Evangelist"__________________


Good Reputation____He has appeared on TV news_______


My opinion changed about this person.

I believe that he is an expert but he sounds biased in favor of nuclear energy.

I will believe what he says but I will not believe it 100%.

Homework for next week.

1) Read over chapters 6 and 7 one more time.

These chapters are quite detailed but please don`t get too worried about each detail.

Just think about how bad logic can ruin an argument.


2) Look at this list of logical fallacies.

choose a few at random from the list.

Try to explain in your own words why these are examples of bad reasoning.



Logical Fallacies: Examples

Either you're for me or against me.

America: love it or leave it.

If I make an exception for you then I have to make an exception for everyone.

Experts agree that the best way to prevent nuclear war is to prepare for it.

Employees are like nails. Just as nails must be hit in the head in order to make them work, so must employees.

Because we allow terminally ill patients to use heroin, we should allow everyone to use heroin.

Cancer causes smoking.

Since I'm not lying, it follows that I'm telling the truth.

We know that God exists, since the Bible says God exists. What the Bible says must be true, since God wrote it and God never lies.

The sign said "fine for parking here", and since it was fine, I parked there.


It would be illegal to give away
Free Beer!

All Texans are Americans, and no Californians are Texans, therefore, no Californians are Americans.

I won the lottery because my psychic aura made me win.

Logical reasoning test

Try this test!

There are 5 questions.

Good Luck!

Find the value assumptions

Should universities use positive discrimination to increase diversity?

Should boxing be banned?

Should abortion be legal?

Should Cannabis/Marijuana be legalised?

Should children be allowed to work in the performing arts or professional sports?

Should parents be allowed to select the gender of their offspring?

Should voting in elections be compulsory?

Should cosmetic surgery be banned?

Should blasphemy be against the law?

Should extremist political parties be banned from standing for political office?

Should we legalise the sale of human organs?

Should everyone have to carry an identity card?

Should parents have the right to educate their children privately?

Should a mandatory maximum salary be imposed by governments?

Should smoking be banned in public places?

Do schools have the right to search students’ lockers?

Should we ban or restrict the use of violent video games?

Should we ban the keeping of animals in zoos?

Essay Exercises

First, identify the conclusion and reasons. Then identify the value conflicts and assumptions in each of the following passages.

1) Sarah: I’ve made my choice of colleges. I want to go to Dreswel University.
High school counselor: Why do you want to go there?
Sarah: Their residence hall rooms have much more closet space than other schools I visited.


2) Today’s youth need to spend a lot less time with their computers, cell phones and iPods. Long sedentary hours at a computer is one of the major causes of early obesity in our children, and all that time spent instant messaging and e-mailing keeps them from learning important face-to-face social skills. Also parents are having to struggle to find any time to spend with their children. How much time our children are wasting is revealed by a recent survey that found that the total amount of media content our children get exposed to has increased to eight and a half hours per day! Parents need to set limits on the time their children spend “dialing up.”


3) Conscientious objectors are traitors to their country and should be either arrested or deported to somewhere that will tolerate them. When one's country is in danger of foreign domination, there is no time for cowardice or reflection. The freedom of every citizen is in danger when a war is on, and it is every citizen's duty to contribute to that freedom's defense. Conscientious objectors put everyone at risk, and they must not be allowed to do so with impunity.


4) Each year in the United States, hundreds of thousands of animals are slaughtered each year to please the palates of Americans. Before their death — usually by electrocution or blunt force head trauma — most of these livestock are kept in deplorable conditions. Cattle feed lots are packed so tightly that animals can scarcely move; chickens are held in cages too small for them to turn around in; veal calves are denied any motion at all to keep their flesh tender. For what? So that people who can afford the privilege can enjoy tasty meat products.
These methods are not necessarily bound to eating meat. People can raise animals the old-fashioned way — on farms with ample pasture and free-ranging animals — and still produce enough meat for America. Mass production methods of raising animals, like those described above, must change if we are to think of ourselves as ethical people; as long as we tolerate such tremendous and pointless suffering, we cannot.


5) In 1992, 282.5 people per 100,000 in the United States died of heart disease, and 204.3 per 100,000 died of cancer. These two death rates are nearly four times the size of the next nearest cause of death (cerebrovascular diseases), and both are largely caused by lifestyle choices.
What kind of lifestyle choices are Americans making to lead to this result? 27.5 percent are grossly overweight (20 percent or more over average), 59 percent don't exercise regularly, and 25.5 percent smoke. Only 40 percent of women and 32 percent of men select foods carefully to maintain a healthy diet.
Americans have demonstrated themselves incapable of making responsible choices to serve their own health. Strict government regulation of food and drug products is clearly needed to reduce high rates of preventable diseases like this. If people will not make responsible choices by themselves, the government can at least prevent manufacturers from producing goods that will eventually harm the health of millions.


6) America's youth are being cheated out of their educational future by narrow-minded budget cuts. Legislatures have apparently forgotten that learning requires a network of support and that those who facilitate the learning process require resources to do their jobs effectively. Unless teachers feel that their work is appreciated, they may find it hard to get up each day, excited about the challenge of encouraging as much learning as they know how.
Direct federal support for students is one more area where the cutbacks are harmful. When students cannot afford higher education, they certainly lose, but so do we all. The creativity and talents that would have been developed through higher education are lost to all of us. Just because a student is not born into a rich family, should they be unable to attend college? Where is our sense of justice and opportunity? 


For tomorrow

Read chapter 7!

Appeals to Authority

I am a member of the Duncan Hawthorne Fan Club!

This is a facebook group.

I became a member of this fan club after last year`s big disaster.

My friend told me about this fan club.

Duncan Hawthorne gives advice about the nuclear situation in Fukushima.

Often, someone reads some shocking news about Fukushima and they ask Duncan about it on this facebook group.

Duncan`s advice always sounds good.

Usually, he says "Don`t panic" or "Relax".

Of course, I love his advice.

But WHO IS DUNCAN HAWTHORNE?

His advice sounds good but can I trust him?

I did some research about him.

He has his own Wikipedia page!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_Hawthorne

According to Wikipedia, he is an expert about power generation.

He is the CEO of a Bruce Power (a power company).

But I don`t always trust Wikipedia.

I searched more and found this youtube video about him.



Duncan seems to be very knowledgeable about nuclear power.

He also appeared on TV to talk about the situation in Fukushima.



So he is knowledgeable and respected but is he biased?

I searched on Yahoo about him.

I found this article.

http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/article.asp?article=\magazine\080811\mag2008_gb0001.html

The article calls him a "Nuclear power evangelist"

Bruce Power, his company, runs a nuclear power plant in Canada.

Also, he wants to open more nuclear power plants in Canada.

"Duncan Hawthorne wants to build the West's first nuclear power plant in Alberta or Saskatchewan. Or both."

So is he biased?

Should I trust him?

Maybe, I trust him 80%.


Some people trust him too much.

When asking a question, one person says "Darling Duncan..."

Slippery slope fallacy

see more epicfails

Logical Fallicies in videos.

John McCain ran for President in 2008.

This was one of his campaign videos.

The logical fallacy in this video is that John McCain is like the other great leaders shown in this video.

It does not explain why John McCain is like these other leaders.

http://youtu.be/J_A53PAxeR8


This is another of John McCain`s campaign videos.

In this video he is attacking Obama.

He does not show famous world leaders in this video.

He shows Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

Many people do not like these celebrities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHXYsw_ZDXg




"Everybody likes IKE!"

Dwight D. Eisenhower was the president from 1953- 1961.

His nickname was "Ike".

The logical fallacy in this video is an appeal to the popular.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc1eX1_PUxs&feature=player_embedded


This video is very good!

It shows many examples of fallicies.

False dilemma

"You're either with us, or against us"


President Bush


This is called a "false dilemma".

It assumes that there are only 2 choices.

1) Agree with the speaker

or

2) You are terrible!

Assingment for next week

1) Read chapter 6

2) Find the hidden assumptions. Do 1-6.

3) What are your top 5 value assumptions?


Good luck!

Value Assumptions

                                
Adventure                            Beauty                            Calm

Challenge                             Change                           Cleanliness

Orderliness                           Competition                   Concern for others

Friendship                             Fun                                Generosity

Gentleness                            Global view                   Gratitude

Hard work                             Happiness                      Harmony

Health                                    Honor                            Individuality

Inner peace                            Innovation                      Integrity

Intelligence                           Justice                             Kindness

Knowledge                           Privacy                             Progress   

Punctuality                            Respect for others            Rule of Law

Safety                                    Satisfying others              Security

Self-givingness                     Self-reliance                      Self-thinking

Content over form                 Continuous improvement   Creativity

Determination                        Democracy                       Discipline

Discovery                               Diversity                           Efficiency

Enjoyment                              Equality                            Fairness

Leadership                              Love                                  Romance

Loyalty                                    Maximum utilization        Learning
                                            (of time, resources)

Meaning                                  Patriotism                          Peace

Perfection                               Personal Growth                Perseverance

Pleasure                                  Power                                 Service (to others, society)

Simplicity                               Stability                              Strength

Standardization                      Teamwork                            Tolerance

Tradition                                Tranquility                            Trust

Truth                                      Well-being                            Wisdom

Benefits to All                        Civic Duty                            Civic Pride

Civil Rights                           Common Purpose                  Consumer Rights

Human Rights                        Diversity                               Duty

Concern for the Environment        Equal Opportunit         Majority Rule

Minority Rights                     Nation's Status (in World)    Respect for Others (individuals,                                                                                                             cultures, races)
Respect for the Individual     Respect for Elders                Right to Bear Arms

Safety Net (for elderly, unemployed, etc.)                         Women's Rights








What are your top 5 value assumptions?

Hidden Assumptions

We are always making assumptions.

When we go to the train station we assume that there will be a train coming soon.

Unless we learn something to challenge our assumption, we accept the assumption without thinking about it.

But, we are aware that we are making this assumption.


What assumptions have you made already today?

______________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________



We are often making assumptions that we don`t even know we are making.

These are hidden assumptions.


Look at this argument.

Nuclear Power is wrong because it is unnatural!

The hidden assumption is "If something is unnatural, it is wrong."


All arguments have at least one assumption.


Find the hidden assumptions

1) Moby Dick is a whale. So Moby Dick is a mammal.

Assumption_____________________________________________________

2) Giving students a failing grade will damage their self-confidence. Therefore, we should not fail students.

Assumption_____________________________________________________


3) It should not be illegal for adults to smoke pot. After all, it does not harm anyone.

Assumption_____________________________________________________

4) There is nothing wrong talking on a mobile phone during lectures. Other students do it all the time.

Assumption_____________________________________________________

5) Killing an innocent person is wrong. Therefore, abortion is wrong.

Assumption_____________________________________________________

6) Traces of ammonia have been found in Mars' atmosphere. So there must be life on Mars.

Assumption_____________________________________________________

New Study!

Go to any search engine and search for "new study".

You will find so many amazing things!

For example:

Premonitions are real


How many times have your heard about the results of an amazing new study?

Maybe you thought "Wow! This will change the world!"

But then you never hear about this study again.


That`s because the study was probably wrong.


Medical studies with striking results often prove false

Dr. John Ioannidis, a researcher at Stanford University, wanted to know how many "shocking" studies are in fact false.

Dr. Ioannidis and a team of researchers looked at 228,220 studies.

In at least 90% of the studies that had dramatic results, the results in the end turned out to be false.

Dr. Ioannidis wrote an essay "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.".


So what should we do?

We should not get so excited about any "new study".

We should wait until more research is done on a topic.